From the Great Game to the Grand Partnership: Discrete Analysis on Afghanistan and Regional Integration

The Great Game has started and been on since two centuries. The main reason for the rivalry between the two Great Power of that time, at the very outset of the Game, lied in their efforts to open new trade routes from the Central Asia through Afghanistan to the South Asia and in the opposite direction. Then, in the last century, the new great and regional powers have entered this confrontation. The key point of the said Game was, and remains, the control Afghanistan, that became a buffer state located in the center of this region.

In my discrete analysis around Afghanistan this trend is called "the Great Game". When in the end of 1980-s the first bases of international terrorist organization appeared on Afghan soil I named this historical event as "the Den of terrorism", a phenomena that had lasted for 30 years. Another historical event, which still continues to influence bilateral relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan is "the Durand line", established in 1893.

One of the main trend and historical event related to our today’s gathering is the lack of connectivity or non-existence of any road and, most importantly, railway connection between Central and South Asia through Afghan soil. It means that Afghanistan has served as a barrier on the path of any plans promoting regional economic development and integration. Let's call this phenomena as "The buffer state".

In 2009 in my discrete analysis I have outlined more and different trends and events: "The State of Pashtuns", "Federation", "Imamat in Afghanistan", "the Unitary Democratic State", "Confederation", "Unified Pashtunistan", "The Civil War", "The End of the IRA government" and so on.

Further I have to explain you what the discrete analysis means. This method is not standard and is not found in any textbook. This approach is focused on discrete events that end trends and can be a useful tool in historical research, especially when your aim is to reach a more granular and nuanced understanding of how trends evolve and either come to a logical conclusion or cease to exist. This method has the potential of how to illuminate a lesser-known, subtle shifts in the history that might otherwise be overlooked. At the same time, it is crucial to be mindful of the complexity and interconnectedness of historical trends in order to avoid oversimplifications. So the definition of “the discrete event" simultaneously does mean a historical trend and its culmination in some historical event or a historical event itself.

It is obvious that nowadays the region’s country have become closer to each other and has more opportunity to give start to a new trend that was first mentioned some fifteen or twenty years ago. I mean the ideas of "A Partnership for Greater Central Asia" which became the basis for the American “New Silk Road” initiative (S. Frederick Starr, 2005), "A Grand Bargain" (Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, 2008), “A New Middle East” (Yu. Krupnov, 2008), "The Heart of Asia – Istanbul Process" (2011). Wang Jisi, an influential international relations scholar in China and dean of the faculty of international relations at Peking University, in 2012 proposed a ​​"March Westward" concept (2012), that later has been transformed into the modern Chinese "Silk Road Economic Belt" initiative announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his regional tour of Central Asia.

30 years ago Republic of Kazakhstan suggested to open in our region an UN Economic and Social Commission, but at that time was established only Special Programme for Economic of Central Asia –SPECA, which Afghanistan has joined.  In 2012 Kazakhstan proposed the idea to place a UN regional hub in Almaty already hosting 18 UN agencies. Particular attention was paid to Afghanistan’s economic growth – this country’s stability and prosperity are directly linked to the security and well-being of Central Asia. Finally, The UN General Assembly unanimously adopted a resolution on the establishment of the UN Regional Center for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty during its March 4, 2025 session in New York.

The hub will serve as a key platform for coordinating international and regional efforts, sharing best practices, providing technical assistance and implementing joint projects. It will work with governments, international organizations, private sector and civil society to drive tangible progress.

The center will also play a significant role in revitalizing the UN system, enhancing the organization’s effectiveness at the regional level. Its activities will focus on strengthening coordination among UN agencies, adapting global initiatives to regional needs and promoting inclusive multilateral cooperation.

I would like to remind you that the ministerial debate of the UN Security Council on building regional partnership in Afghanistan and Central Asia as a model to link security and development, was held on 19 January 2018 during the Presidency of Kazakhstan as the first Central Asian non-permanent-country in the UN Security Council.

Then, on 22nd June 2018 the UN General Assembly has recognized Central Asia as a distinct world region. The Assembly passed a resolution on “strengthening regional and international cooperation to ensure peace, stability and sustainable development in the Central Asian Region.” The resolution was introduced by Uzbekistan’s representative to the UN on behalf of all Central Asian countries.

Thus, the Central Asian countries became a collective active power (there is no an equivalent in English for the Russian phrase «субъектность в международных отношениях), agency or as formulated by a well-known expert on our region Stephen Friderick Starr a "collective agency".  In this case the agency means the capacity, condition, or state to choose, make decisions and take actions in international relations. And by other definition the agency is the belief  in your ability to handle of tasks and situations, the sense of control that you feel in your life, your ability to influence your own thoughts and behavior.

The same thing we can say about Afghanistan under the rule of the interim government or the de-facto authorities of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The country is making efforts to regain its agency in international relations, and international partners have to understand this reality. The current government, unlike previous governments, does not count on endless gratuitous external material, technical and financial assistance (although it does not refuse the support provided), especially through various intermediary non-governmental organizations, trust funds which pay for consulting services of numerous advisers. At the same time, for the purpose of further development, there is an obvious determination not only to preserve, but also to use as effectively as possible (at least by eliminating widespread corruption) the economic infrastructure, the legal framework and the management system with trained personnel, created over twenty years with the help of the international community.

Trade, including foreign trade, accounts for more than 50 percent of the gross domestic product and, accordingly, a large share of the budget revenue. That is why the government retained control over the entire infrastructure of foreign trade: government agencies, institutions, services and enterprises of various legal forms, the system of legal and regulatory acts regulating and controlling the movement of international cargo flows, including transport and logistics companies, as well as those providing services for the implementation of foreign trade transactions (banking structures, chambers of commerce and industry, etc.). The first decisions in the economic sphere ensured the smooth and efficient operation of all border crossings and customs offices on the borders with neighboring countries and in provincial border centers by the same personnel.

The development budget and economic prospects of Afghanistan are linked to the tax and customs revenues from foreign trade, and subsequently the expectation of income from the restoration and construction of new irrigation systems, and, as a result, the growth of agricultural production. From taxes and payments for the operation of state-owned facilities leased under concessions, foreign direct investment in the development of mineral resources and transit opportunities. This is confirmed in renewed contacts at the official level on well-known projects of trans-Afghan railways, gas pipelines and power lines. Foreign trade statistics show an increase in import of intermediate goods for the construction of production facilities.

More than 50 thousand cargo vehicles are presently involved in transit transportation through the territory of Afghanistan. Illegal road posts that were previously engaged in extortion of money from truck drivers have been eliminated all over the country. In October 2024, a decision was announced to install global positioning system (GPS) equipment on all trucks transiting Afghanistan to ensure the transparency and safety of goods delivery. Afghanistan has reached agreements with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a logistical hub in Afghanistan's Herat province to develop regional trade.

On August 29, 2024, an opening ceremony of the Termez International Trade Center was held on the Afghan-Uzbek border. On the border with Turkmenistan on September 11, 2024 within the framework of a comprehensive logistical operation, seven major infrastructure projects were implemented, including the start of construction of a warehouse complex in the dry port of the Turgundi railway station.

One of the most significant economic events of 1403 was the official launch of TAPI project on September 12 in Herat province. According to the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, over 10 kilometers of the TAPI gas pipeline within Afghanistan have been completed so far.

The International Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Afghanistan continued its activities holding annual trade exhibitions in Kabul and provincial centers, as well as in other counties of our region: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, China, Kazakhstan and other countries.

One of the key elements of the Islamic Emirate’s foreign trade strategy is the elimination of threat of drugs that can spread across the national borders along with the export of Afghan goods to neighboring countries. That is why opium poppy crops are destroyed, strict measures are taken to suppress the production and smuggling of drugs. It is very important and significant for Afghanistan to regain trust in itself as a reliable partner, including in TIR Carnet.

The Neighboring countries also appreciate the fact that the de facto authorities  in Afghanistan do not export their ideology and  demonstrate readiness to prevent terrorist threats. Based on the results of the work, experts state that the foreign trade turnover is increasing, and some export items has even exceeded the volumes of the republican period. In particular, the neighboring Pakistan facing a trade deficit with Afghanistan had to take certain protectionist measures. The number of foreign tourists visiting Afghanistan is also increasing.

Along with the progress achieved, unresolved challenges such as the suspension of US aid, frozen Afghan assets, stalled key projects like CASA-1000, Trans-Afghan railway and the Aynak copper mine in Logar as well as and trade issues with Pakistan have continued to cast a grim shadow over the country’s economic growth in 1403.

So far as internal policy concerns, the de facto authorities have managed to maintain control over the situation all over the country: over the past three y and half ears, there has been no obvious resistance from tribal, clan, ethnic or regional political networks to the government’s drive to consolidate its authority. The existing facts of peace between tribes that have been feuding for decades on the basis of blood feuds indicate a desire to consolidate the Pashtuns, who have historically resisted centralization of power.

Despite the outer political uncertainty surrounding the Afghan government, his firm commitment to maintain and expand trade relations with neighboring countries, as well as integrating the country into a broader regional and global economy, has been evident. Afghanistan’s trade, logistics and related infrastructure are being modernized, facilitating a closer cooperation with regional partners. The drive for self-sufficiency and a growing role of the private sector in  Afghan economy demonstrate positive changes that can contribute to a long-term stability and sustainable development.

The situation remains fragile, however, as the Afghan government’s reluctance to complete the formation of political institutions is both a stabilizing and a slowing factor. The leadership seeks to avoid destabilization caused by internal conflicts through carefully navigating a difficult path of the post-war state-building. Continued efforts to build infrastructure, strengthen governance, and develop international partnerships are enhancing Afghanistan’s potential as a responsible actor. Growing support for Afghan projects such as the Kosh Tepa Canal from international think tanks and foreign investors demonstrates that engagement is possible despite political difficulties.

In conclusion, we can outline the economic strategy and vision of the leadership of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as enhancing and attaining the country’s economic self-sufficiency  that during the period of 2021-2024 included the following trend and events:

·  Ongoing “Irrigation of all country”. Development  of a nation-wide water-management and sustainable water-supply network with the aim of achieving a higher productivity in the agriculture industry by construction big and small dams and water-distribution and irrigation systems. Constructing dams, water storages and retaining walls to prevent flood-related damages to farmers. Building small check dams all over in arid areas also increases the potential of storing winter runoff in aquifers from which the water can be withdrawn with the help of “KAREZ” water distribution system during the dry season for irrigation, livestock watering, and drinking needs.

·  Newly appeared “Agro processing”. Development of  processing industry facilities to process agricultural products for the production of food, feed, fible, fuel or industrial raw material for both domestic needs and export.

·  Ongoing “Electrification” by using hydro- and solar energy sources (Kamal Khan Dam in Nimroz, Shah Wa Arus Dam in Shakardara District of Kabul Province, the Kharwar Dam in Logar province, Kilagai Dam in Baglan province, etc.).

·  Ongoing “Transit and logistic facilities”. Enhancing regional connectivity by building pipelines, power transmission lines, roads, railways, modernization of custom and transit logistical facilities.

·  Ongoing “Diversification of the economy” by reducing reliance on traditional income sources like agriculture and trade through promoting sectors such as mining, manufacturing (coal, cement, salt, marble, gas) and services. Development of reliance on own mineral resources by attracting domestic and international investment and implementing small, medium and large-scale projects.

·  Newly appeared “Labor export”. The de-facto authorities in Afghanistan have started and are continuing vocational training programmes all over the country, but enforced by current circumstances also commences a temporary policy of labor forces export to reduce of high level of unemployment, facilitating internationally professional  qualification of Afghan workers and their financial remittances from overseas.

·  Ongoing “Fiscal Sustainability” free from corruption in revenue generation in the taxation and custom systems and expenditure management.

·  Ongoing “Stable National Currency”. In Afghanistan all economic transactions are carried out only in national currency. The use of all foreign currencies banned, including cash destined for humanitarian work and assistance. Any foreign aid delivered in cash is converted into the local currency (“Afghani”) and infused into circulation. The stable national currency is the result of the necessary and aimed reduction money supply and its subsequent growth with the extension of the national economy, strict currency control and tightening control over the informal “hawalah” money market. The appreciation of the Afghani made imports cheaper, including import machinery for all sectors of economy, and this factor is important for the actively reviving domestic industry.

·  Ongoing "Self-supporting Economic Growth".

·  Newly appeared "Competitor to Neighbors" (to Pakistan in trade balance, and to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in water sharing on Amu Darya river basin).

·  Accomplished “the Imamat in Afghanistan”.

·  Accomplished "the Military and Political Stability" (finally, after 50 years of instability).

·  Accomplished "De facto Recognition".

·  Expected "De Jure Recognition". 

·  Existent "Violation of Rights of Women and Girls".

·  Supposed "Humanitarian Crisis".

·  Fading away "ISIS in Khorasan".

·  Existent "Tehrik-e Taliban-e Pakistan ".

·  Nonexistent within the country "An Organized Political Opposition".

·  Hypothetical "Splits in the Ruling Elite".

·  Possible "Radicalization of Power".

·  Ongoing "Kush-Tepa Canal",  including construction a lot of other dams and irrigation facilities.

·  Hypothetical "the Regional Water Conflicts".

·  Ongoing "Trans-Afghan Gas Pipeline";

·  Postponed "Trans-Afghan railway";

·  Postponed  “CASA-1000” project

·  Postponed “Mes Aynak” and other progects.

And in conclusion, I would like to name the most important trend of the day that is expected and demanded by the people of our vast region: Finish the event "The Great Game" and start the event "The Grand Partnership". After centuries of conflict, competition, and division, it is time to move toward cooperation, stability, and mutual development.

It is high time to change.